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Saturday, 07 of May of 2005




Population growth raised: cause or consequence of the poverty?


Eduardo Frigoletto de Menezes

Without a doubt some, one of the subjects that always
they had stimulated warm quarrels, theories and great concern was the population growth.


A famous known demographic theory as Malthusianism - elaborated in the end of century XVIII for the Protestant Shepherd Thomas Robert Malthus - defends that the great population growth would be the cause of the poverty why it passes good part of the world-wide population. In opposition, the Reformist Theory based in the ideas of Karl Marx, defends that the misery is the cause of the overpopulation. But after all, who is with the reason?


The theoreticians affirm that "the ideal" tax of fertility is of 2,1 children for woman. The explanation is simple: 2,0 children to substitute its 2 parents who one day will go to die e, 0.1 children for woman to cover the tax of infantile mortality.


In Brazil, currently this index is of 2,3 children for woman what already he is very next to provide population balance e, sufficiently next to the tax of the United States that is of 2,0 children for woman. These numbers take our country to a tax of annual vegetative growth of 1,3 % that already she is next to being considered low.


However, if the simple reduction of the fertility taxes meant improvement of the conditions of life of the population, Brazil already would be a country very next to being classified as developed, what it is far of being reality.


E which would be the causes of the reduction of the taxes of fertility in the great majority of the Brazilian regions?


One of the main ones is the intense process of urbanization why it passed Brazil in the last decades. When to immigrated of the field for the cities, the people start to have access the public services of health and education. Also she contributed the diffusion of the access to the Social welfare providing through the retirement, an income to the families most devoid. This discourages the idea of that it stops keeping the parents when they left to work would be necessary to have a bigger number of children, therefore of them would come the only familiar income.


It seems nonsense but studies carried through in the decade of 70 of the last century indicate that the soap operas had helped in the shrinking of the homes, therefore the majority of them showed families of two children, consisting in a standard that finished influencing the couples.


However, the reduction of the rhythm of the Brazilian population growth with this apparent proximity of the "ideal tax", hides serious problems and deep territorial inaqualities.


The first one of them is that in some poor and moved away Brazilian regions as in the cities of Catfish, Pará, the average arrives the 7,3 children for woman, although to lose for the cities of Tartarugalzinho and Pracuuba, both in the Amapá, with superior indices. In that city, some women arrive to have up to 20 children during its fertile life (about a son per year).


Another aspect is that the slum quarters currently are true population bombs give to blow up. The demographic growth of the same ones is almost three times of the Brazilian average. Studies indicate that the causes are diverse: increase of the fecundidade, immigration, increase of the life expectancy, arrived of people who had had its reduced standard of living e, believe, sex as one of the main forms of leisure. This set of factors can take the population that lives in slum quarters to reach preoccupying 13,5 million people in the next years.


If after all the arguments above, some reader still will be in doubt on who had reason (Thomas Malthus or Karl Marx), suggests a visit to a maceioense quarter call Clima Bom that he is one of poor and violent of the city. He made much time that I not by a so great amount of children for the streets, good part of them still using diapers, beyond pregnants womans for all the parts.


For the skill, Marx had reason.



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